Australia’s Ambitious Climate Target: Aiming for 2035
In a significant move towards addressing climate change, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen are set to announce a 2035 emissions reduction target that is expected to surpass commitments made by Australia’s allies in Canada and New Zealand, while still falling short of the United Kingdom’s ambitious goals. This decision, anticipated to be finalized in a cabinet meeting today, will be presented at the United Nations General Assembly in New York next week, where global leaders will also confirm their respective targets.
Context of the 2035 Target
The forthcoming commitment comes on the heels of the first National Climate Risk Assessment, released earlier this week. This report highlighted alarming projections, indicating that by 2050, rising sea levels could impact approximately 1.5 million Australians, alongside increased heat-related fatalities and frequent flooding in major urban centers if global temperatures rise beyond 2 degrees Celsius.
The Albanese government’s target is poised to strike a balance between ambition and feasibility, reflecting a middle ground among like-minded nations. This approach is crucial, as it will shape national policies, financial commitments, and the overall trajectory towards achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
Understanding the 2035 Target
The 2035 target is part of a broader international framework established by the Paris Agreement, which was negotiated by 196 nations in 2015. The agreement aims to limit global temperature increases to well below 2 degrees Celsius, with a strong emphasis on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate scientists have consistently warned that exceeding this threshold could lead to catastrophic weather events, severe sea-level rise, and detrimental impacts on global health.
While most nations have committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, they are also required to set interim targets, which are updated every five years. Australia’s current target for 2030 aims for a 43% reduction in emissions compared to 2005 levels. The significance of the upcoming 2035 target cannot be overstated, as it will have profound implications for future governmental policies and the nation’s ability to meet its long-term climate goals.
Global Comparisons: What Other Nations Are Committing
As Australia prepares to announce its 2035 target, it is essential to consider the commitments made by other countries:
- Canada: Aims for a 45-50% reduction below 2005 levels.
- New Zealand: Targets a 51-55% reduction.
- United Kingdom: Has set an ambitious goal of cutting emissions by approximately 78% below 2005 levels.
- United States: Under President Biden, the target is a 61-66% reduction, although the country had previously withdrawn from the Paris Agreement under President Trump.
- Japan: Proposes a 60% reduction based on 2013 levels.
- Brazil: Commits to a 59-67% reduction below 2005 levels.
Timeline for the 2035 Target
The United Nations’ climate agency initially requested that countries submit their 2035 targets by February of this year. However, due to various challenges, this deadline was extended to the end of the month. The Albanese government had previously delayed its timeline, responding to requests from the Climate Change Authority for additional time to reassess the situation, particularly in light of the political changes in the United States.
While nations can submit their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) at any time, the timing of the UN General Assembly has prompted many to align their updates with this significant global event.
The Path to Achieving the Target
The Australian government’s approach to setting its 2035 target is distinctive among its allies. It is based on a comprehensive analysis of policy measures and the expected emissions reductions from those policies. The government’s existing 2030 target was derived from modeling that assessed the potential impact of various initiatives. Similarly, the 2035 target will be informed by recent announcements, such as a $1.1 billion fund aimed at supporting the production of green aviation and diesel fuels.
Anticipation and Implications of the Target Announcement
As the cabinet convenes to discuss the Climate Change Authority’s recommendations, there is considerable anticipation regarding the final target. Treasurer Jim Chalmers has indicated that the modeling for the 2035 target falls within a range of 65-75% reduction, although the final recommendation may be adjusted due to the evolving political landscape, particularly following the re-election of President Trump.
Minister Bowen has emphasized that the government’s target will balance ambition with achievability, stating, “Based on the best evidence and forecasts from the Climate Change Authority and other experts, that’s what we’ll be doing.”
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has warned that to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a 68% reduction in emissions is necessary by 2035. However, many countries have yet to submit targets that align with this critical benchmark. The Climate Change Authority has noted that current commitments could lead to a concerning 2.9 degrees Celsius of warming, assuming they are met.
The Broader Impact of Australia’s Target
While Australia contributes only about 1% of global emissions, the nation has the potential to set a precedent for others in achieving ambitious emissions reduction targets. Labor MP Jerome Laxale remarked on the importance of the upcoming announcement, stating, “The number or the range to be announced this week is very important. But to me, it’s not a ceiling. We need to get to net zero as soon as possible.”
The opposition Coalition continues to evaluate its climate policy amidst internal disagreements, with some members cautioning against pursuing emissions reductions “at any cost.” Meanwhile, climate advocacy groups argue that any target below 71% would represent a regression compared to commitments already made by various states and territories.
Conclusion
The impending announcement of Australia’s 2035 climate target is a pivotal moment in the nation’s environmental policy landscape. As the government navigates the complexities of setting an ambitious yet achievable target, the implications will resonate across communities, the economy, and the environment for years to come. The world watches closely as Australia prepares to reaffirm its commitment to combating climate change, a challenge that transcends borders and demands collective action.
