Fantasy Football Matchup Insights for Week 7: Key Players to Start and Sit

As the NFL season progresses, fantasy football managers face the perennial challenge of making tough lineup decisions. With injuries and bye weeks complicating matters, identifying favorable matchups becomes crucial. This week, we delve into the intricacies of matchup analysis, providing insights that can help you optimize your fantasy roster.

Understanding Matchup Rankings

Determining the best and worst matchups each week is essential for fantasy success. The matchup rankings offer a unique, schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 NFL defenses from most to least favorable for opposing players at key positions: quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end.

Instead of relying solely on seasonal totals, these rankings adjust points-allowed data to reflect how each defense has performed relative to the difficulty of their schedule. This nuanced approach allows fantasy managers to make more informed decisions, especially when faced with similar player options.

Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Adj. FPA)

A critical metric in this analysis is Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Adj. FPA). This statistic indicates how many fantasy points a defense allows above or below the average for that position. A positive Adj. FPA suggests a favorable matchup, while a negative number indicates a tougher challenge. It’s important to note that teams often utilize multiple players at each position, and these averages encompass all personnel.

However, matchups are just one component of the decision-making process. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor should every unfavorable matchup be avoided. For a comprehensive view of who to start and sit, consulting weekly rankings from trusted sources is advisable.

Quarterback Matchups to Watch

Start: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts

Justin Herbert has emerged as a pivotal figure in the Chargers’ offense this season, increasing his passing attempts to 57% of his snaps. With the Colts’ defense struggling against top-tier quarterbacks, Herbert is poised for a strong performance. The game is projected to be high-scoring, with an over/under of 48.5 points, making Herbert a must-start.

Other Notable Starts

• Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears vs. New Orleans Saints: Williams has shown promise and could capitalize on a favorable matchup.
• Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Rodgers is looking to bounce back and could find success against a vulnerable Bengals defense.
• Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: Mayfield has been consistent and could exploit the Lions’ secondary.

Sit: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings

Despite being a top fantasy quarterback, Hurts faces a challenging matchup against the Vikings, who have allowed the seventh-fewest yards per passing attempt. With the Vikings well-rested from their bye week, expectations should be tempered for Hurts this week.

Running Back Matchups

Start: Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns vs. Miami Dolphins

Judkins has been surprisingly effective, especially considering the Browns’ tendency to play from behind. With the Browns favored in this matchup, Judkins has the potential for a breakout game against a Dolphins defense that has struggled against running backs.

Other Notable Starts

• Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals: Warren has been a reliable option and could thrive in this matchup.
• Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys: Croskey-Merritt is gaining traction and could be a valuable asset this week.
• Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans: Stevenson has the potential to exploit a favorable matchup.

Sit: Breece Hall, New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers

After a disappointing outing in London, Hall faces a Panthers defense that has been underrated. The Panthers rank significantly higher against running backs compared to the Broncos, making Hall a risky start this week.

Wide Receiver Matchups

Start: Deebo Samuel, Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys

Samuel is in a prime position to succeed against a Cowboys defense that has allowed multiple wide receivers to score over 15 fantasy points in several games. If Terry McLaurin returns, Samuel’s value could increase even further.

Other Notable Starts

• Ladd McConkey, Chargers vs. Colts: McConkey has been a reliable target and could find success in this matchup.
• Mike Evans, Buccaneers at Lions: Evans remains a top option and could exploit the Lions’ secondary.
• Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Los Angeles Rams: Thomas has shown promise and could be a valuable asset.

Sit: Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers at New York Jets

McMillan has struggled to find his footing in a challenging matchup against the Jets, who have limited opposing wide receivers. This week may not be the best time to rely on him.

Tight End Matchups

Start: Mason Taylor, New York Jets vs. Carolina Panthers

Tight end has been a challenging position this season, but Taylor has a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per target to tight ends. This could be a breakout opportunity for him.

Sit: T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Hockenson faces a tough matchup against the Eagles, who have excelled at limiting tight ends. With a modest target share, Hockenson may not be worth the risk this week.

Conclusion

Navigating the complexities of fantasy football requires a keen understanding of matchups and player performance. As we head into Week 7, leveraging matchup insights can significantly impact your lineup decisions. By focusing on favorable matchups and being cautious with players facing tough defenses, you can enhance your chances of success in your fantasy league. Always remember to stay updated on player news and consult comprehensive rankings for the most informed decisions.