The Kiama by-election, set to take place this weekend, has emerged as a focal point of political interest in New South Wales. This contest is not merely about filling a vacant seat; it serves as a potential indicator of broader political sentiments and the effectiveness of major party leaders. For Premier Chris Minns, who leads a relatively new Labor government, this election represents a significant test, albeit one he admits he does not fully understand.
“I don’t know what kind of test it is, but it is a test,” Mr. Minns remarked earlier this week. He emphasized the importance of community support, acknowledging that the ultimate decision lies in the hands of the voters.
Local resident Susan Brown, who participated in pre-poll voting, echoed this sentiment, viewing the election as a measure of both government performance and Mr. Minns’s leadership. “He’s a premier that tends to look at things, and so he will see how people have voted, and it could give him food for thought,” she stated, reflecting on her decision to support Labor this time around.
The vacancy in Kiama arose following the resignation of Gareth Ward, a former MP who was convicted of sexual abuse offenses. Ward had represented the area for over a decade, initially as a Liberal and later as an independent. In the 2023 state election, he narrowly defeated Labor’s Katelin McInerney by a mere 689 votes.
With Ward no longer in the picture, attention has shifted to McInerney, who is seen as a strong contender. Her campaign has been characterized by a cautious and disciplined approach, focusing on Labor’s policy announcements. Premier Minns has made seven visits to the region since the by-election was called, with plans to return on polling day.
The Shadow of Gareth Ward
For the Liberal Party, the stakes in Kiama extend beyond merely securing a single seat. Local candidate Serena Copley, a former Shoalhaven councillor, is attempting to ground her campaign in community issues rather than national politics. This by-election also serves as a litmus test for the state Liberals, who are grappling with the fallout from their troubled federal brand and a local government controversy that saw their state party headquarters fail to register numerous candidates, including Copley.
The combination of a crowded candidate field, the backlash from Ward’s tenure, and Labor’s current governmental advantage presents a steep challenge for the Liberals.
A Crowded Field and Crucial Preferences
Among the candidates is Kate Dezarnaulds, a Community Independent from Berry, who has been actively campaigning despite facing significant challenges. Her political style resembles that of the “teal” independents, although she campaigns in yellow. Having made her political debut in the recent federal election in Gilmore, where she secured 11% of the primary vote, she is now vying for attention in Kiama.
The optional preferential voting system in this election could make preferences a decisive factor. Greens candidate Tonia Gray, who occupies the top spot on the ballot, could significantly influence first-preference votes. In the last election, Gray secured 12% of the vote, which helped boost Labor’s final count. However, this time, her preferences are expected to flow to the Animal Justice and Legalise Cannabis parties before reaching Labor.
For Premier Minns, the stakes are clear but manageable. His leadership style, characterized by a calm and reasonable demeanor, positions him as a steady hand for voters who remain wary after the scandals surrounding the former MP. A strong performance in the by-election would reinforce his pragmatic approach, while even a loss carries limited immediate political risk.
Minns’s visits to the region have included various announcements, though he has refrained from making specific promises. Dezarnaulds has criticized Labor for leveraging “business-as-usual funding announcements” that were delayed for political reasons, suggesting that they were intended to avoid giving Ward the opportunity to announce them himself.
For Opposition Leader Mark Speakman, the implications of this by-election are more significant. A poor result could underscore the party’s ongoing struggle to connect with voters, particularly in light of recent federal setbacks and local government controversies. Critics argue that Speakman has been overly cautious, failing to make commitments on critical issues such as infrastructure and housing in Shellharbour, which constitutes a significant portion of the electorate.
Local sentiment is influenced by various factors, including the Kiama council’s calls for more land to be unlocked for housing. At pre-polling, many voters appear motivated more by a desire to protest against Ward than by loyalty to any particular party, complicating the electoral landscape.
For McInerney, the challenge lies in converting moderate, issue-focused voters without alienating the party base. Meanwhile, Copley must navigate the dual shadows of Ward’s legacy and Speakman’s perceived risk-aversion. A victory for Labor would still leave them in a minority position but would provide the premier with additional breathing room.
Ultimately, the Kiama by-election will reveal whether voters choose to reward pragmatism, punish past scandals, or simply stick with the familiar. The outcome will also indicate which candidates can effectively translate voter sentiment into electoral success.
