Zohran Mamdani Leads New York City Mayoral Race by 21 Points, Poll Reveals
In a striking development in the New York City mayoral race, Democratic Socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani has established a significant 21-point lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, according to a recent poll conducted by the Marist University Institute for Public Opinion. This survey, released on Tuesday, highlights Mamdani’s growing support, particularly among younger and Black voters, as the election approaches.
Poll Results: A Snapshot of Voter Preferences
The Marist poll indicates that Mamdani commands 45% of the support among likely voters, while Cuomo trails at 24%. Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa garners 17% of the vote, and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams stands at 9%, with 5% of respondents undecided. Notably, the poll was conducted prior to Governor Kathy Hochul’s endorsement of Mamdani, which could further influence voter sentiment.
Black Voter Support
A significant aspect of Mamdani’s lead is his appeal among Black voters. While Cuomo previously dominated this demographic during the Democratic primary in June, the new poll reveals a shift. Nearly half, or 47%, of likely Black voters now favor Mamdani, compared to 26% for Cuomo, 11% for Adams, and 5% for Sliwa. This shift underscores Mamdani’s growing influence in a city where demographic dynamics play a crucial role in electoral outcomes.
The Impact of Adams’ Potential Withdrawal
The poll also explored hypothetical scenarios, revealing that if Mayor Adams were to withdraw from the race, Mamdani’s lead would narrow to 16 points. In this scenario, Mamdani would still receive 46% of the vote, while Cuomo would rise to 30% and Sliwa to 18%. This suggests that Adams’ presence in the race may be siphoning off votes that could otherwise bolster Cuomo’s campaign.
Two-Way Race Dynamics
In a direct matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo, the gap narrows further to 10 points, with Mamdani at 49% and Cuomo at 39%. This shift indicates that Sliwa’s supporters may be more inclined to back Cuomo in a two-way contest, highlighting the complexities of voter alignment in a multi-candidate race.
Voter Demographics: A Closer Look
The Marist survey reveals stark contrasts in support across different age groups and political ideologies. Among voters under 45, a remarkable 62% back Mamdani, while Cuomo only captures 14%. Conversely, among older voters, support is more evenly split, with Mamdani at 33%, Cuomo at 30%, Sliwa at 21%, and Adams at 8%.
Mamdani’s appeal extends beyond age demographics. He enjoys overwhelming support from very liberal voters, with 86% backing him, while 65% of those identifying as liberal also favor his candidacy. In contrast, moderate voters lean towards Cuomo, with 35% supporting him compared to 31% for Mamdani.
Support Among Non-White Voters
The poll also highlights Mamdani’s strong support among non-white voters, where he receives 51% compared to Cuomo’s 22%. Among Latino voters, Mamdani leads with 52% support, while Cuomo garners only 21%. This demographic advantage is crucial in a city where diversity is a defining characteristic of the electorate.
Challenges for Cuomo and Other Rivals
Cuomo’s campaign faces significant challenges, particularly in light of Mamdani’s rising popularity. The former governor has attempted to critique Mamdani’s positions, particularly regarding Israel, but this strategy has not yet translated into increased support. Jewish voters remain divided, with 35% supporting both Mamdani and Cuomo, indicating that the race is far from settled.
Likability Factor
One of the key factors contributing to Mamdani’s lead is his perceived likability. According to the poll, 52% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Mamdani, while only 39% view Cuomo positively. In contrast, 68% of voters have an unfavorable impression of Adams, and 51% feel the same about Sliwa. This likability gap could play a pivotal role as the election date approaches.
The Road Ahead: Opportunities for Cuomo
Political analysts suggest that Cuomo must capitalize on his past progressive accomplishments to regain traction among younger and liberal voters. Highlighting his role in advancing New York’s gay marriage law could resonate with voters who prioritize social issues. As the election date of November 4 approaches, debates and public appearances will provide opportunities for candidates to sway undecided voters.
Polling Methodology
The Marist poll sampled 885 likely voters between September 8 and 11, utilizing a combination of live phone interviews, text responses, and online surveys. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points, providing a snapshot of voter sentiment as the race intensifies.
Conclusion
As the New York City mayoral race heats up, Zohran Mamdani’s commanding lead presents both opportunities and challenges for his opponents. With a diverse coalition of support and a strong appeal among younger voters, Mamdani is positioning himself as a formidable candidate. However, with several weeks remaining until the election, the dynamics of the race could shift dramatically, making it essential for all candidates to engage actively with the electorate. As the campaign unfolds, the focus will be on how candidates adapt their strategies to resonate with a diverse and evolving voter base.
