Early NFL Season Trends: A Deep Dive into DVOA and Historical Comparisons

As the 2025 NFL season unfolds, early statistics are drawing attention, particularly those related to team performances and individual player achievements. While it’s common to hear about players being “on pace” for record-breaking seasons, understanding the historical context of these statistics is crucial. This article explores the current landscape of the NFL through the lens of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), a metric that provides a clearer picture of team performance by comparing it to historical data.

The DVOA Perspective

DVOA is a valuable tool for analyzing team efficiency, allowing for comparisons across different eras of the NFL. By examining performances through the first four games of the season, we can identify trends that may indicate how teams will fare as the season progresses. Historical data shows that teams often regress toward the mean; those that start strong may falter, while those that struggle often improve.

Current Standouts and Strugglers

This season, the Seattle Seahawks have emerged as a surprising leader in DVOA, boasting the top defense in the league. However, their performance is historically underwhelming, ranking as the 32nd best defense since 1978 through the first four weeks. In contrast, the Buffalo Bills, currently leading in offensive DVOA, rank 71st among offenses in the same timeframe. This juxtaposition highlights the unusual nature of the current season, where neither offense nor defense is performing at historically great levels.

The Dallas Cowboys: A Defensive Dilemma

Struggles in Pass Defense

The Dallas Cowboys have garnered attention for their lackluster pass defense, currently ranking as the eighth-worst in NFL history through four games. They have allowed a staggering 1,189 passing yards and 10 touchdowns, leading the league in both categories. This performance is particularly surprising given the talent in their secondary, including All-Pro cornerbacks Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland.

The Cowboys’ struggles can be traced back to a weak pass rush, ranking 27th in pass rush win rate at 30.4%. New defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has opted for a zone coverage scheme, but it has not yielded the desired results. Historically, teams that start the season with such poor pass defense metrics rarely recover, with the 1981 Baltimore Colts holding the record for the worst pass defense DVOA at 50.0%.

Future Outlook

While the Cowboys may see some regression to the mean, their current trajectory suggests a challenging season ahead. Historically, teams with such poor early-season pass defenses have struggled to finish with winning records. However, the Cowboys do have two first-round picks in the upcoming draft, which could provide an opportunity for rebuilding.

The New York Giants: Run Defense Woes

An Unexpected Struggle

The New York Giants have also found themselves in a precarious position, currently ranking as having the third-worst run defense in NFL history. They have allowed 612 rushing yards, with an alarming average of 6.1 yards per carry. This statistic is particularly concerning given that they rank 12th in run stop win rate, indicating that while they can stop runs at the line of scrimmage, they struggle significantly once runners break through.

Historical Context

Historically, teams with poor run defenses have had varied outcomes. The Giants’ current metrics suggest that they may improve as the season progresses, especially given their run stop win rate. However, the effectiveness of their offense, particularly with a rookie quarterback, remains a significant concern.

The Philadelphia Eagles: A 4-0 Start with Red Flags

Anomalies in Performance

Despite being undefeated, the Philadelphia Eagles rank only 17th in offensive DVOA and 14th in defensive DVOA. This discrepancy raises eyebrows, especially considering they have been outgained in yardage in all four of their wins. Historically, teams that start 4-0 but struggle in underlying metrics often face challenges later in the season.

Historical Comparisons

Among the weakest 4-0 teams in history, several have made it to the Super Bowl, while others have faltered. The Eagles’ success in the coming weeks may depend on their ability to improve their performance metrics, especially as they face a less challenging schedule in October.

The Cincinnati Bengals: A Troubling Trend

Quarterback Challenges

The Bengals have faced significant challenges this season, particularly with quarterback Jake Browning stepping in for the injured Joe Burrow. Browning’s performance has been subpar, with a QBR of 42.4, contributing to the team’s struggles. The Bengals currently sit at a minus-58 point differential, the second-worst in the league.

Historical Precedents

Historically, teams that start with such poor metrics rarely recover to finish with a winning record. The Bengals’ situation is compounded by their average remaining strength of schedule, making it difficult to envision a turnaround.

Puka Nacua: A Record-Breaking Rookie

A Historic Start

Amidst the struggles of various teams, Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua has made headlines with his record-setting pace. Nacua has tied the record for the most receptions through the first four games of a season, matching the achievements of notable players like Michael Thomas and Cooper Kupp. His performance has been remarkable, with 42 receptions for 503 yards.

Future Prospects

While Nacua’s current pace is impressive, history suggests that players who start strong often do not maintain that momentum throughout the season. However, given the Rams’ offensive scheme, he has the potential to break the single-season reception record if he can stay healthy.

Conclusion

As the 2025 NFL season progresses, early trends reveal a mix of surprising performances and alarming struggles. Teams like the Cowboys and Giants face significant challenges, while the Eagles and Rams present intriguing narratives of potential and promise. By examining these early-season metrics through the lens of historical data, fans and analysts alike can gain a deeper understanding of what to expect as the season unfolds. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether these trends hold true or if teams can turn their fortunes around.