NHL Preseason Wrap-Up: Players Facing Regression Ahead of the 2025-26 Season
As the NHL preseason draws to a close, anticipation builds for the regular season set to commence on October 7. The 2024-25 season saw several players experience significant statistical highs, but as history shows, such performances often lead to regression. This article delves into key players who may face challenges in replicating their previous success, examining the factors that could influence their performance in the upcoming season.
Understanding Regression in Hockey
Regression in sports, particularly in hockey, refers to the phenomenon where players’ performance levels return to their historical averages after an unusually high or low season. This can be influenced by various factors, including shooting percentage, team dynamics, and individual roles. For instance, a player who has an exceptional shooting percentage one season may find it difficult to maintain that level the following year.
Key Factors Influencing Regression
- Shooting Percentage: A primary indicator of potential regression is a player’s shooting percentage. If a player significantly exceeds their career average, it is likely that their performance will normalize in subsequent seasons.
- Team Environment: Changes in team dynamics, such as line combinations or coaching strategies, can also impact a player’s output. A player who benefits from playing alongside elite talent may not replicate their success if their situation changes.
- Matchups: As players gain recognition for their scoring ability, they often face tougher defensive matchups, which can hinder their production.
Players to Watch for Regression
Morgan Geekie, LW, Boston Bruins
Morgan Geekie’s breakout season with the Boston Bruins saw him achieve a career-high shooting percentage of 22%, leading to 33 goals-almost double his previous best. However, such a spike is unsustainable. With increased responsibilities on the top line, Geekie will likely face tougher matchups, making it reasonable to project a drop in his goal total to between 22 and 26.
Mark Scheifele, C, Winnipeg Jets
Mark Scheifele’s impressive 2024-25 season included 39 goals and 87 points, buoyed by a shooting percentage that exceeded his career average. The loss of key players like Nikolaj Ehlers from the power play could further impact his production. A more realistic projection for Scheifele this season would be around 30 goals and 77 points, reflecting a significant regression from his previous output.
Aliaksei Protas, LW, Washington Capitals
Protas experienced a remarkable season, more than doubling his previous point total and scoring 30 goals. However, his shooting percentage skyrocketed to 21.1%, a figure that is unlikely to be sustainable. With no power-play goals last season and increased awareness from opposing teams, Protas may realistically see his goal total drop to around 20.
Brandon Hagel, LW, Tampa Bay Lightning
Brandon Hagel’s performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off raised his profile, but his 90-point season may not be repeatable. While his shooting percentage was sustainable at 15.4%, his role on the second line will limit his opportunities. A more realistic expectation for Hagel would be a production level closer to 75-80 points.
Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights
Mark Stone’s health has been a concern throughout his career, and while he managed to play 66 games last season, his injury history raises questions about his ability to maintain production. With a decreased role following the addition of Mitch Marner, Stone’s offensive output is likely to regress, making a repeat of his previous season’s performance unlikely.
Matt Duchene, C, Dallas Stars
Matt Duchene’s role as a third-line center for the Stars will limit his ice time and scoring opportunities. After a standout season with 82 points, Duchene’s production is expected to decline, especially given his high shooting percentage of 19.7%. A more realistic projection would see him tally around 21 goals and 40 assists.
Historical Context of Regression
Historically, the NHL has seen numerous players experience regression after breakout seasons. For example, players like Tyler Johnson and Artemi Panarin had seasons where they exceeded expectations, only to see their numbers normalize in subsequent years. This pattern serves as a reminder that while talent is crucial, consistency in performance is often dictated by a multitude of factors.
Conclusion
As the NHL gears up for the 2025-26 season, the potential for regression among key players is a topic of significant interest. Understanding the factors that contribute to this phenomenon can provide valuable insights for fans, analysts, and fantasy hockey enthusiasts alike. While players like Morgan Geekie and Mark Scheifele may have enjoyed stellar seasons, the realities of the sport suggest that maintaining such high levels of performance is a formidable challenge. As the puck drops on the new season, all eyes will be on these players to see how they adapt and respond to the pressures of the NHL.
