Russia’s Salami Strategy: A Bold Challenge to NATO

In a significant escalation of tensions, Russia has been accused of conducting drone incursions into Polish airspace, a move that analysts interpret as part of a broader “salami-slicing” strategy aimed at testing the resolve of Western nations. This tactic, characterized by incremental provocations, allows a state to advance its strategic interests without triggering a substantial military response.

Historically, this approach has been a hallmark of Russian foreign policy, particularly under President Vladimir Putin. Analysts point to previous incidents, such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing military presence in Georgia, as examples of how Russia has methodically expanded its influence while gauging the reactions of NATO and the international community.

The recent drone incursions into Poland, which occurred in the early hours of Wednesday, represent the first such violation since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. Poland’s military responded by scrambling its own aircraft, alongside NATO forces, to intercept 19 Russian drones that had entered its airspace.

Western allies quickly condemned the actions as a deliberate provocation. In contrast, Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that it had no intention of targeting Poland, while the Kremlin dismissed the incident as “nothing new,” indicating a lack of concern over potential repercussions.

Benjamin Godwin, a partner at the risk consultancy PRISM Strategic Intelligence, emphasized that Russia’s strategy is designed to probe and test the West’s reactions. He noted that NATO’s reluctance to engage in direct conflict with Russia has created an asymmetric dynamic, allowing Russia to escalate tensions through calculated provocations.

Godwin pointed to previous incursions into Estonian airspace and ongoing electronic warfare across Europe as evidence of this strategy. He remarked, “Russia is able to escalate in these very, as we say in the U.K., salami-slicing ways, and NATO has proven incapable so far in responding in any effective way to stop these efforts.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged the seriousness of the situation, stating that a full assessment of the drone incursion is underway. He expressed admiration for the swift response from allied nations, indicating a unified front in the face of Russian aggression.

In response to the drone incursions, NATO allies are taking proactive measures to strengthen defenses along Europe’s eastern flank. This includes discussions about potential economic sanctions against Russia and convening an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council.

However, analysts argue that a mere show of force may not be sufficient to deter Putin. Godwin has called for NATO to reassess its defensive posture and the types of military assets deployed in Eastern Europe, suggesting that a more robust response is necessary to counteract Russia’s aggressive tactics.

Oksana Nechyporenko, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, warned that a weak response from the West could embolden further aggression from Russia. She stated, “Ukrainians have been saying for years that Putin is not only waging war against Ukraine, but against the West-Europe in particular.” Nechyporenko emphasized that Putin’s tactics involve testing the waters with outrageous actions, waiting for the world’s reaction, and then pushing further if no significant response is forthcoming.

The political ramifications of the drone incursions have also drawn attention. U.S. President Donald Trump offered a somewhat ambiguous response, questioning whether Russia’s actions constituted a mistake. He stated, “It could have been a mistake, but regardless, I’m not happy about anything having to do with that whole situation.”

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk took issue with Trump’s remarks, asserting that the drone attack was not a mistake but a calculated act of aggression. Tusk’s response underscores the seriousness with which Poland views the incursion, reflecting a broader concern among Eastern European nations regarding Russian intentions.

Trump has previously advocated for economic measures against countries that continue to engage with Russia, including tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil, indicating a desire to cut off funding for Putin’s military endeavors.