Switzerland’s Current Account Surplus Plummets Amid Gold Export Fluctuations
Published: September 23, 2025
Switzerland’s current account surplus has experienced a dramatic decline, more than halving in the second quarter of 2025. This shift, reported by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), is largely attributed to significant fluctuations in gold exports, a situation exacerbated by the unpredictable trade policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump.
A Volatile Start to the Year
Switzerland, recognized as the world’s largest hub for bullion refining and transit, processes approximately one-third of global gold production. At the beginning of 2025, the country witnessed a surge in gold exports, driven by market participants hedging against potential tariffs on gold imports from the U.S. This surge was not merely a local phenomenon; it reflected broader anxieties in the global market regarding trade relations and economic stability.
In the first quarter, billions of dollars’ worth of gold was shipped from Switzerland to the U.S. and other countries, as investors sought to protect their positions amid fears of impending tariffs. The situation shifted in April when the U.S. government exempted gold from its broad import tariffs, leading to a reversal of some gold flows back to Switzerland and Britain.
Current Account Surplus Decline
The SNB’s data revealed that Switzerland’s current account surplus fell to 10 billion francs (approximately $12.6 billion) in the April to June period, a stark decrease from 25 billion francs during the same timeframe the previous year. This decline raises questions about the sustainability of Switzerland’s economic model, which has long relied on a robust current account surplus.
The SNB noted that while both receipts and expenses related to gold trading increased significantly during this period, the rise in expenses outpaced the increase in receipts. Specifically, Switzerland recorded credits of 28.2 billion francs from gold exports, but expenses soared to 38 billion francs, resulting in a deficit of 9.7 billion francs for the gold sector alone.
The Impact of Gold Trading
Gold trading has historically been a cornerstone of Switzerland’s economy, contributing to its status as a financial powerhouse. The fluctuations in gold exports are not merely a reflection of market dynamics; they also underscore the intricate relationship between global economic policies and local economies.
UBS economist Maxime Botteron commented on the situation, emphasizing that the steep decline in the current account surplus should not be a cause for alarm. He pointed out that the volatility observed at the beginning of the year was primarily linked to gold, with demand spiking due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs. “Now it seems the situation is stabilizing, so gold will likely play less of a factor moving forward,” Botteron stated.
Long-Term Economic Implications
Switzerland’s long-standing current account surplus has been a structural factor contributing to the strength of the Swiss franc. Foreign customers require Swiss francs to pay local suppliers, creating a consistent demand for the currency. However, the recent decline raises questions about the future trajectory of the Swiss economy, particularly in light of ongoing global economic uncertainties.
The Swiss Precious Metals Association (ASFCMP) highlighted the traditional balance in gold trade between Switzerland and the U.S. “In normal times, we tend to import more gold from the U.S. than we export there,” said ASFCMP President Christoph Wild. “But when people are worried or in crisis situations, demand increases, and we export more to the U.S.”
Looking Ahead
As Switzerland navigates these economic challenges, the focus will likely shift toward stabilizing its gold trade and addressing the underlying factors contributing to the current account surplus decline. The interplay between global trade policies and local economic conditions will remain a critical area of observation for economists and policymakers alike.
In conclusion, while the recent drop in Switzerland’s current account surplus may raise eyebrows, it is essential to view this development within the broader context of global economic dynamics. The fluctuations in gold exports serve as a reminder of the interconnectedness of markets and the impact of geopolitical events on national economies. As the situation stabilizes, Switzerland’s economic resilience will be tested, but its historical strength in the gold market may provide a buffer against future uncertainties.
