Syria‘s Historic Elections: A New Chapter or Just a Facade?

Syria is poised to embark on a significant political journey as it prepares for the People’s Assembly elections on Sunday, marking the first electoral process since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2025. This moment is not just a political event; it symbolizes a potential shift in the country’s governance after over five decades of oppressive rule by the al-Assad family. The elections are being closely watched as a litmus test for the new government led by President Ahmad al-Sharaa.

A Controversial Electoral Process

Despite the historic nature of these elections, the process has sparked considerable debate. Unlike traditional democratic elections, there will be no universal voting. Instead, President al-Sharaa will appoint one-third of the assembly members, while the remaining members will be selected by electoral subcommittees. This structure raises questions about the legitimacy and effectiveness of the electoral process.

The new People’s Assembly will consist of 210 seats, a reduction of 40 from the previous assembly under al-Assad. Members will serve 2.5-year terms, with al-Sharaa appointing 70 members and the other 140 being elected by subcommittees overseen by an 11-member Supreme Committee, also appointed by al-Sharaa. This committee will manage a pool of approximately 6,000 electors who will cast their votes at regional electoral colleges.

Syrian authorities have justified the lack of a general vote by citing unreliable census data, a consequence of the nearly 14 years of civil war that has displaced millions. Aron Lund, a Syria expert at the Century International think tank, commented on the limited political impact of the elections, stating, “It is an indirect election using a set of electors who have basically been handpicked by the current rulers.”

Candidate Landscape and Security Concerns

The Supreme Committee has approved 1,570 candidates for the 140 elected seats. Notably, there are no political parties involved in this electoral process, which further complicates the notion of democratic representation. A draft law mandates that electoral colleges include 20% representation for women and 3% for individuals with disabilities, but the absence of political diversity raises concerns about the elections’ authenticity.

Tragically, the electoral landscape has been marred by violence. Haidar Shahin, an Alawite candidate from Tartous, was shot dead in his home just days before the elections. The government-aligned Al-Watan newspaper reported that Shahin was killed by “remnants of the former regime,” highlighting the ongoing sectarian tensions that have plagued the country.

Regional Voting Disparities

Voting will not occur uniformly across the country. Up to 32 of the 210 assembly seats will remain vacant due to postponed voting in Kurdish-controlled regions in the northeast and the southern region of Suwayda, where recent clashes have raised security concerns. This uneven electoral landscape further complicates the legitimacy of the elections.

Public Sentiment: Hope Amid Skepticism

The Syrian populace exhibits a mix of hope and skepticism regarding the elections. Many citizens are relieved to see the end of the al-Assad family’s rule and are eager for any alternative. However, lingering security concerns, including recent violence in coastal regions and clashes in Suwayda, have left many distrustful of al-Sharaa’s leadership.

A recent poll conducted by the Arab Center revealed that 61% of Syrians favor a democratic system that includes political pluralism and accountability. In contrast, only a small fraction expressed support for a system governed by Islamic law without parties or elections. This data underscores a significant desire for democratic governance among the populace, despite the challenges they face.

The Role of President al-Sharaa

President Ahmad al-Sharaa has emerged as a central figure in this transitional phase. Since leading the offensive that ousted al-Assad on December 8, he has played a pivotal role in shaping the new political landscape. Analysts suggest that while al-Sharaa’s influence is substantial, the elections could still yield some genuinely popular figures and local notables, which would be a positive development for the country.

Lund noted, “Syria needs to let local communities connect to the Damascus power structure.” He emphasized that while the elections may not lead to a fully independent legislature, they could represent a first step toward a more pluralistic political process.

A Step Toward Pluralism or a Box-Ticking Exercise?

As the elections approach, the question remains: will this electoral process lead to meaningful political change, or is it merely a facade for a new authoritarian regime? Analysts are divided on the potential outcomes. Some believe that the elections could pave the way for genuine political discourse, while others view them as a continuation of the status quo.

Lund remarked, “To what extent will this parliament be allowed to shape politics and voice dissonant opinions as opposed to just rubber-stamping laws?” The results of the elections, expected to be announced by Tuesday, will provide insight into the future of governance in Syria.

Conclusion

Syria’s upcoming elections represent a critical juncture in the nation’s tumultuous history. While the absence of universal voting and the appointment of assembly members raise questions about the legitimacy of the process, the elections also offer a glimmer of hope for a more democratic future. As the world watches closely, the outcomes will determine whether Syria is on the path to genuine political reform or merely repeating the cycles of its past.